Злой рок. Политика катастроф - Нил Фергюсон

No. 27432 (June 2020), https://doi.org/10.3386/w27432.

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1319

Chetan Ahya, «The Coronavirus Recession: Sharper but Shorter», Morgan Stanley Ideas, May 12, 2020, https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/coronavirus-impactonglobal-growth; Gavyn Davies, «After Lockdowns, Economic Sunlight or a Long Hard Slog?» Financial Times, May 3, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/f2b79b3a-8ae5-11ea-9dcb-fe6871f4145a.

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1320

Gita Gopinath, «The Great Lockdown: Worst Economic Downturn Since the Great Depression», IMFBlog, April 14, 2020, https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/14/the-great-lockdown-worst-economic-downturn-since-the-great-depression/; Gita Gopinath, «Reopening From the Great Lockdown: Uneven and Uncertain Recovery», IMFBlog, June 24, 2020, https://blogs.imf.org/2020/06/24/reopening-from-the-great-lockdown-uneven-and-uncertain-recovery/; James Politi, «Emerging Economies Forecast to Shrink for First Time in 60 Years», Financial Times, June 8, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/47998ee3-b2d3-4066-a914-edbf60b797b5; «The World Economy on a Tightrope», OECD Economic Outlook (June 2020), https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/.

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1321

Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Stephen J. Terry, «COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty», NBER Working Paper No. 26983 (April 2020), https://www.nber.org/papers/w26983.

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1322

«Real-Time Data: The State of Hourly Work at U. S. Small Businesses», Homebase, https://joinhome base.com/data/covid19; Laura Noonan, ‘«Where Is My Loan?’ Small Businesses Miss Out on U. S. Rescue Funds», Financial Times, April 20, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/e6a06f94-5d2f-43a0–8aac-c7adddca0b0e; Neil Barofsky, «Why the Small-Business Bailout Went to the Big Guys», Bloomberg, April 30, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/20200430/why-small-business-bailout-wenttoshake-shack-and-ruthschris.

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1323

Paul Krugman, «Notes on the Coronacoma (Wonkish)», New York Times, April 1, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/opinion/notesonthe-coronacoma-wonkish.html; См. также: Noah Smith, «Paul Krugman Is Pretty Upbeat About the Economy», Bloomberg, May 27, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/20200527/paul-krugmanispretty-upbeat-about-coronavirus-economic-recovery.

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1324

Kenneth Rogoff, «Mapping the COVID-19 Recession», Project Syndicate, April 7, 2020, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/mapping-covid19-global-recession-worstin150-yearsbykenneth-rogoff-202004.

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1325

«Fed Injection Postponing Economic Problems, Not Solving: Summers», Bloomberg, April 9, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/20200410/fed-injection-postponing-economic-problems-not-solving-summers-video.

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1326

John Cochrane, «Whack-a-Mole: The Long Run Virus», The Grumpy Economist (blog), April 4, 2020, https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/04/whack-mole-long-run-virus.html.

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1327

Enda Curran and Hong Jinshan, «Chinese Factories Humming Doesn’t Mean Anyone Is Buying», Bloomberg, May 30, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/20200530/chinese-factories-humming-doesntmean-anyoneisbuying.

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1328

U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, «Personal Saving Rate [PSAVERT]», retrieved from FRED: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT.

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1329

Greg Ip, «Signs of a V-Shaped Early-Stage Economic Recovery Emerge», Wall Street Journal, June 13, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/signsofavshaped-early-stage-economic-recovery-emerge-11592040600.

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1330

Jennifer Calfas, Brianna Abbott, and Andrew Restuccia, «Texas Pauses Reopening, as CDC Says Millions More May Have Had Coronavirus», Wall Street Journal, June 25, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-latest-news06252020-11593070962; Greg Ip, «A Recovery That Started Out Like a V Is Changing Shape», Wall Street Journal, July 1, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/areverse-square-root-recovery-11593602775.

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1331

«TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers for 2020 and 2019», U. S. Transportation Security Administration, https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput.

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1332

SafeGraph, «The Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Foot Traffic», August 17, 2020, https://www.safegraph.com/dashboard/covid19-commerce-patterns.

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1333

Apple Maps «Mobility Trends Reports»; TomTom, «San Francisco Traffic», https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/san-francisco-traffic/.

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1334

Raj Chetty et al., «Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker», https://tracktherecovery.org/; Emily Badger and Alicia Parlapiano, «The Rich Cut Their Spending. That Has Hurt All the Workers Who Count on It», New York Times, June 17, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/17/upshot/coronavirus-spending-rich-poor.html; Ip, «Recovery That Started Out Like a V.»

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1335

«Impact of COVID-19 on Electricity Consumption and Particulate Pollution», Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC), June 14, 2020, https://epic.uchicago.edu/areaoffocus/covid19/.

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1336

Gavyn Davies, «Big Data Suggests a Difficult Recovery in U. S. Jobs Market», Financial Times, July 5, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/607f24f5-71ed-452c-b68e-716145584e3d.

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1337

Alexandre Tanzi, «N. Y. Seen with 40 % Drop in Tax Revenue, Steepest Fall in U. S.», Bloomberg, June 15, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/20200615/economists-forecastatleast30tax-decline-for10usstates; David Harrison, «Recession Forces Spending Cuts on States, Cities Hit by Coronavirus», Wall Street Journal, July 8, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/recession-forces-spending-cutsonstates-cities-hitbycoronavirus-11594200600.

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1338

Gavyn Davies, «Managing COVID Debt Mountains Is a Key Task for the Next Decade», Financial Times, June 7, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/a371909e-a3fe-11ea-92e2-cbd9b7e28ee6; John Cochrane, «Perpetuities, Debt Crises, and Inflation», The Grumpy Economist (blog), June 8, 2020, https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/06/perpetuities-debt-crises-and-inflation.html.

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1339

Timiraos and Hilsenrath, «Federal Reserve Is Changing What It Means.»

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1340

Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan, «Future Imperfect After Coronavirus», VoxEU by CEPR, March 27, 2020, https://voxeu.org/article/future-imperfect-after-coronavirus; Willem Buiter, «Paying for the COVID-19 Pandemic Will Be Painful», Financial Times,