Злой рок. Политика катастроф - Нил Фергюсон

Pandemic in Paris, France: Prospective Observational Study», BMJ 369 (June 3, 2020), pp. 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m2094.

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1073

Florian Götzinger et al., «COVID-19 in Children and Adolescents in Europe: A Multinational, Multicentre Cohort Study», Lancet Child and Adolescent Health, June 25, 2020, pp. 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2352–4642(20)301772.

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1074

John Eligon et al., «Black Americans Face Alarming Rates of Coronavirus Infection in Some States», New York Times, April 14, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/us/coronavirus-race.html; Overberg and Kamp, «U.S. Deaths Are Up Sharply».

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Elizabeth J. Williamson et al., «Factors Associated with COVID-19 Related Death Using OpenSAFELY», Nature, July 8, 2020, pp. 1-17, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-25214. См. также: William Wallis, «How Somalis in East London Were Hit by the Pandemic», Financial Times, June 21, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/aaa2c3cd-eea6–4cfa-a918-9eb7d1c230f4.

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1076

Neeraj Bhala et al., «Sharpening the Global Focus on Ethnicity and Race in the Time of COVID-19», Lancet 395, no. 10238 (May 8, 2020), pp. P1673 – P1676, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140–6736 (20) 311028. См. также: «The COVID-19 Racial Data Tracker», Atlantic COVID Tracking Project, https://covidtracking.com/race.

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David A. Martinez et al., «SARS-CoV2 Positivity Rate for Latinos in the Baltimore – Washington, D. C. Area», JAMA 324, no. 4 (June 18, 2020), pp. 392–395, https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.11374; Samantha Artiga and Matthew Rae, «The COVID-19 Outbreak and Food Production Workers: Who Is at Risk?» Kaiser Family Foundation News, June 3, 2020, https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid19/issue-brief/the-covid19outbreak-and-food-production-workers-whoisatrisk/; Jonathan M. Wortham et al., «Characteristics of Persons Who Died with COVID-19 – United States, February 12 – May 18, 2020», CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) 69, no. 28 (July 17, 2020), pp. 923–929, http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6928e1. О коренных американцах: James Bikales, «Native American Tribal Nations Take Tougher Line on COVID-19 as States Reopen», The Hill, June 21, 2020, https://the hill.com/homenews/state-watch/503770-native-american-tribal-nations-take-tougher-lineoncovid19asstates, but also Ryan M. Close and Myles J. Stone, «Contact Tracing for Native Americans in Rural Arizona», NEJM 383, no. 3, July 16, 2020, pp. E15 – E16, https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMc2023540.

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Nasar Meer et al. «The Social Determinants of COVID-19 and BAME Disproportionality», Justice in Global Health Emergencies and Humanitarian Crises, May 5, 2020, https://www.ghe.law.ed.ac.uk/the-social-determinantsofcovid19and-bame-disproportionality-repostbynasar-meer-and-colleagues/. См. также: Wallis, «Somalis in East London», and Hugo Zeberg and Svante Pääbo, «The Major Genetic Risk Factor for Severe COVID-19 Is Inherited from Neandertals», BioRxiv, July 3, 2020, https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.03.186296v1.

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В случае, когда репродуктивное число патогена (R0) равно 4, один заболевший заражает еще четверых. Математически порог коллективного иммунитета рассчитывается как 1–1/R0, и при R0 = 4 этот порог составит 75 % населения. (Прим. авт.)

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1080

Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, «Here’s Why Herd Immunity Won’t Save Us from the COVID-19 Pandemic», Science Alert, March 30, 2020, https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-saveusfrom-the-covid19pandemic; Haley E. Randolph and Luis B. Barreiro, «Herd Immunity: Understanding COVID-19», Immunity 52, no. 5 (May 19, 2020), pp. 737–741, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.immuni.2020.04.012.

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Liu Tao et al., «Prevalence of IgG Antibodies to SARS-CoV2 in Wuhan – Implications for the Ability to Produce Long-Lasting Protective Antibodies Against SARS-CoV2», MedRxiv, June 16, 2020, pp. 1-30, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.13.20130252; Henry M. Staines et al., «Dynamics of IgG Seroconversion and Pathophysiology of COVID-19 Infections», MedRxiv, June 9, 2020), pp. 1-21, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.07.20124636; Long Quan-Xin et al., «Clinical and Immunological Assessment of Asymptomatic SARS-CoV2 Infections», Nature Medicine 26 (June 18, 2020), pp. 1200–1204, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-09656; F. Javier Ibarrondo et al., «Rapid Decay of Anti-SARS-CoV2 Antibodies in Persons with Mild COVID-19», NEJM, July 21, 2020, pp. 1–2, https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMc2025179.

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Bao Linlin et al., «Reinfection Could Not Occur in SARS-CoV2 Infected Rhesus Macaques», BioRxiv, March 14, 2020, pp. 1-20, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226; Deng Wei et al., «Primary Exposure to SARS-CoV2 Protects Against Reinfection in Rhesus Macaques», Science 369, no. 6505 (August 14, 2020), pp. 818–823, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc5343; «News Room: Press Release», Korean Centers for Disease Control, https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000 &bid=0030; Roman Woelfel et al., «Clinical Presentation and Virological Assessment of Hospitalized Cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in a Travel-Associated Transmission Cluster», MedRxiv, March 8, 2020, pp. 1-16, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.05.20030502; Ania Wajnberg et al., «Humoral Immune Response and Prolonged PCR Sensitivity in a Cohort of 1343 SARS-CoV2 Patients in the New York City Region», MedRxiv, May 5, 2020, pp. 1-17, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.30.20085613. Однако см.: Apoorva Mandavilli, «First Documented Coronavirus Reinfection Reported in Hong Kong», New York Times, August 24, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/health/coronavirus-reinfection.html.

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Paul K. Hegarty et al., «BCG Vaccination May Be Protective Against COVID-19», March 2020, pp. 1–8, Research Gate, https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.35948.10880; Martha K. Berg et al., «Mandated Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) Vaccination Predicts Flattened Curves for the Spread of COVID-19», MedRxiv, June 12, 2020, pp. 1-15, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054163; Akiko Iwasaki and Nathan D. Grubaugh, «Why Does Japan Have So Few Cases of COVID-19?» European Molecular Biology Organization (EMBO) Molecular Medicine 12, no. 5 (May 8, 2020), pp. 1–3, https://doi.org/10.15252/emmm.202012481; Luis E. Escobar, Alvaro Molina-Cruz, and Carolina Barillas-Mury, «BCG Vaccine Protection from Severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)», PNAS, June 9, 2020, pp. 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2008410117.

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Zhao Jiao et al., «Relationship Between the ABO Blood Group and the COVID-19 Susceptibility», MedRxiv, March 27, 2020, pp. 1-18, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096;