Черный лебедь. Под знаком непредсказуемости - Нассим Талеб

Merton,R.K.,1968."TheMatthewEffectinScience."Science 159:56-

63.

,1973a,"TheMatthewEffectinScience."InN.Storer,ed.,The

Sociology of Science. Chicago:TheUniversityofChicagoPress.

,i973b,"TheNormativeStructureofScience."InN.Storer,ed.,

The Sociology of Science. Chicago:TheUniversityofChicagoPress.

,1988,"TheMatthewEffectII:CumulativeAdvantageandthe

SymbolismofIntellectualProperty."Isis 79:606-623. Merton,RobertC,1972,"AnAnalyticDerivationoftheEfficient

PortfolioFrontier."Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis

7(4):1851-1872.

,1992,Continuous-Time Finance, 2nded.Cambridge,England:

Blackwell.

Merton,RobertK.,andElinorBarber,2004,The Travels and Adventures of Serendipity. Princeton,N.J.:PrincetonUniversityPress.

Mihailescu,Calin,2006,Lotophysics. Preprint,UniversityofWestern Ontario.

Mikhail,M.В.,В.R.Walther,andR.H.Willis,1999,"DoesForecast AccuracyMattertoSecurityAnalysts?"The Accounting Review 74(2): 185-200.

Mikhail,MichaelВ.,BeverlyR.Walther,andRichardH.Willis,1997, "DoSecurityAnalystsImproveTheirPerformancewithExperience?" Journal of Accounting Research 35:131-157.

Milgram,S.,1967,"TheSmallWorldProblem."Psychology Today 2: 60-67.

Mill,JohnStuart,i860,ASystem of Logic Ratiocinative and Inductive, Being a Connected View of the Principle of Evidence and the Methods of Scientific Investigation, 3rd ed.London:JohnW.Parker,WestStrand.

Miller,DaleТ.,andMichaelRoss,1975,"Self-ServingBiasesinAttributionofCausality:FactorFiction?"Psychological Bulletin 82(2): 213-225.

Miller,GeoffreyE,2000,The Mating Mind: How Sexual Choice Shaped

the Evolution of Human Nature. NewYork:Doubleday. Minsky,H.,1982,Can It Happen Again? Essays on Instability and Finance.

Armonk,N.Y.:M.E.Sharpe. Mitzenmacher,Michael,2003,"ABriefHistoryofGenerativeModels

forPowerLawandLognormalDistributions."Internet Mathematics

1(2):226-251.

Mohr,С,T.Landis,H.S.Bracha,andP.Brugger,2003,"Opposite TurningBehaviorinRighthandersandNon-right-handersSuggests aLinkBetweenHandednessandCerebralDopamineAsymmetries." Behavioral Neuroscience 117(6):1448-1452.

Mokyr,Joel,2002,The Gifts of Athena. Princeton,N.J.:PrincetonUniversityPress.

Montier,James,2007,Applied Behavioural Finance. Chichester,England:Wiley.

Moon,FrancisC,1992,Chaotic and Fractal Dynamics. NewYork:Wiley. Mossner,E.C,1970,The Life of David Hume. Oxford:ClarendonPress. Murphy,A.H.,andR.Winkler,1984,"ProbabilityForecastingin

Meteorology."Journal of the American Statistical Association 79:489-

500.

Myers,DavidG.,2002,Intuition: Its Powers and Perils. NewHaven,

Conn.:YaleUniversityPress. Nader,K.,andJ.E.LeDoux,1999,"TheDopaminergicModulationof

Fear:QuinpiroleImpairstheRecallofEmotionalMemoriesinRats."

Behavioral Neuroscience 113(1):152-165. Naya,Emmanuel,andAnne-PascalePouey-Mounou,2005,Eloge de la

mediocrite. Paris:EditionsRued'ulm.

Nelson,LynnHankinson,andJackNelson,2000,On Quine. Belmont,

Calif.:Wadsworth. Nelson,RobertH.,2001,Economics as a Religion: From Samuelson to

Chicago and Beyond. UniversityPark,Penn.:ThePennsylvaniaState

UniversityPress.

Newell,A.,andH.A.Simon,1972,Human Problem Solving. Englewood

Cliffs,N.J.:Prentice-Hall.

Newman,M.,2003,"TheStructureandFunctionofComplexNetworks." SI AM Review 45:167-256.

Newman,M.E.J.,2000,"ModelsoftheSmallWorld:AReview."Journal of Statistical Physics 101:819-841.

,2001,"TheStructureofScientificCollaborationNetworks."Pro-

ceedings of the National Academy of Science 98:404-409.

,2005,"PowerLaws,ParetoDistributions,andZipfsLaw."Com-

plexity Digest 2005.02:1-27.

Newman,M.E.J.,C.Moore,andD.J.Watts,2000,"Mean-fieldSolution oftheSmall-WorldNetworkModel."Physical Review Letters 84: 3201-3204.

Newman,M.E.J.,D.J.Watts,andS.H.Strogatz,2000,"RandomGraphs

withArbitraryDegreeDistributionandTheirApplications."Preprint

cond-mat/0007235athttp://xxx.lanl.gov. Neyman,J.,1977,"FrequentistProbabilityandFrequentistStatistics."

Synthese 36:97-131. Nietzsche,Friedrich,1979,Ecce Homo. London:PenguinBooks. Nisbett,R.E.,D.H.Krantz,D.H.Jepson,andZ.Kunda,1983,"The

UseofStatisticalHeuristicsinEverydayInductiveReasoning."

Psychological Review go: 339-363. Nisbett,RichardE.,andTimothyD.Wilson,1977,"TellingMoreThan

WeCanKnow:VerbalReportsonMentalProcesses."Psychological

Bulletin 84(3):231-259. Nussbaum,MarthaC,1986,The Fragility of Goodness: Luck and Ethics

in Greek Tragedy and Philosophy. Cambridge:CambridgeUniversity

Press.f я

O'Connor,M.,andM.Lawrence,1989,"AnExaminationoftheAccuracy ofJudgmentConfidenceIntervalsinTimeSeriesForecasting." International Journal of Forecasting 8:141-155.

O'Neill,BrianС.andMausamiDesai,2005,"AccuracyofPastProjections

ofU.S.EnergyConsumption."Energy Policy 33:979-993. OberauerК.,O.Wilhelm,andR.R.Diaz,1999,"BayesianRationalityfor

theWasonSelectionTask?ATestofOptimalDataSelectionTheory."

Thinking and Reasoning 5(2):115-144. Odean,Terrance,1998a,"AreInvestorsReluctanttoRealizeTheir

Losses?"Journal of Finance 53(5):1775-1798.

,1998b."Volume,Volatility,PriceandProfitWhenAllTraders

AreAboveAverage."Journal of Finance 53(6):1887-1934. Officer,R.R.,1972,"TheDistributionofStockReturns."Journal of the

American Statistical Association 340(67):807-812. Olsson,ErikJ.,2006,Knowledge and Inquiry: Essays on the Pragmatism

of Isaac Levi. CambridgeStudiesinProbability,InductionandDecision

TheorySeries.Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress. Onkal,D.,J.F.Yates,C.Simga-Mugan,andS.Oztin,2003,"Professional

andAmateurJudgmentAccuracy:TheCaseofForeignExchange

Rates."Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 91:

169-185.

Ormerod,Paul,2005,Why Most Things Fail NewYork:Pantheon Books.

,2006,"Hayek,'TheIntellectualsandSocialism/andWeighted

Scale-freeNetworks."Economic Affairs 26:1-41. Oskamp,Stuart,1965,"OverconfidenceinCase-StudyJudgments."

Journal of Consulting Psychology 29(3):261-265.

Paese,P.W.andJ.A.Sniezek,1991,"InfluencesontheAppropriateness ofConfidenceinJudgment:Practice,Effort,Information,and DecisionMaking."Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 48:100-130.

Page,Scott,2007,The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Can Create Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies. Princeton,N.J.:Princeton UniversityPress.

Pais,Abraham,1982,Subtle Is the Lord. NewYork:OxfordUniversity Press.

Pareto,Vilfredo,1896,Cours d'economie politique. Geneva:Droz. Park,David,2005,The Grand Contraption: The World as Myth, Number, and Chance. Princeton,N.J.:PrincetonUniversityPress.

Paulos, John Allen, 1988,Innumeracy. New York: Hill &C Wang.

,2003,A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market. Boston: Basic

Books.

Pearl, J., 2000,Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference. New York:

Cambridge University Press. Peirce, Charles Sanders, 1923,1998,Chance, Love and Logic: Philosophical

Essays. Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press.

,1955,Philosophical Writings of Peirce, edited by J. Buchler. New

York: Dover.

Penrose, Roger, 1989,The Emperor's New Mind. New York: Penguin. PeREZ, C. J., A. Corral, A. Diaz-Guilera, K. Christensen, and A. Arenas,

1996,"On Self-organized Criticality and Synchronization in Lattice

Models of Coupled Dynamical Systems." International Journal of

Modern Physics В ю: 1111-1151. Perilli, Lorenzo, 2004,Menodoto diNicomedia: Contributo a una storia

galeniana della medicina empirica. Munich, Leipzig: K. G. Saur. Perline, R., 2005,"Strong, Weak, and False Inverse Power Laws."

Statistical Science 20(1):68-88. Pfeifer, P. E., 1994,"Are We Overconfident in the Belief That Probability

Forecasters Are Overconfident?" Organizational Behavior and Human

Decision Processes 58(2):203-213. Phelan, James, 2005,"Who's Here? Thoughts on Narrative Identity and

Narrative Imperialism." Narrative 13:205-211. Piattelli-Palmarini, Massimo, 1994,Inevitable Illusions: How Mistakes

of Reason Rule Our Minds. New York: Wiley. Pieters, Rik, and Hans Baumgartner, 2002,"Who Talks to Whom?

Intra- and Interdisciplinary Communication of Economics Journals."

Journal of Economic Literature 40(2):483-509. Pinker, Steven, 1997,How the Mind Works. New York: W. W. Norton and

Company.

,2002,The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature.

New York: Viking.

Pisarenko, V, and D. Sornette, 2004,"On Statistical Methods of Parameter Estimation for Deterministically Chaotic Time-Series." Physical Review E 69:036122.

Plotkin, Henry, 1998,Evolution in Mind: An Introduction to Evolutionary Psychology. London: Penguin.

Plous,s.,1993.The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. new

york:mcgraw-hill.

>1995,"acomparisonofstrategiesforreducinginterval

overconfidenceingroupjudgments."Journal of Applied Psychology 80:443-454-

Polanyi,michael,1958/1974,Personal Knowledge: Towards a Post-Critical Philosophy chicago:theuniversityofchicagopress.

Popkin,richardh.,1951,"davidhume:hispyrrhonismandhiscritique ofpyrrhonism."The Philosophical Quarterly 1(5):385-407.

,1955,"theskepticalprecursorsofdavidhume."Philosophy and

Phenomenological Research 16(1):61-71.

,2003,The History of Scepticism: From Savonarola to Bayle. ox-

ford:oxforduniversitypress.

Popper,karlr.,1971,The Open Society and Its Enemies, 5thed.princeton, n.j.:princetonuniversitypress.

,1992,Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific

Knowledge, 5thed.london:routledge.

,1994,The Myth of the Framework. london:routledge.

,2002a,The Logic of Scientific Discovery, 15thed.london:

routledge.

,2002b,The Poverty ofHistoricism. london:routledge.

Posner,richarda.,2004,Catastrophe: Risk and Response. oxford:

oxforduniversitypress. Price,derekj.desolla,1965,"networksofscientificpapers."Science

149:510-515.

,1970,"citationmeasuresofhardscience,softscience,technology,

andnon-science."inс.e.nelsonandd.k.pollak,eds.,Communication Among Scientists and Engineers. lexington,mass.:heat.

,1976,"ageneraltheoryofbibliometricandothercumulative

advantageprocesses."Jo urnal of the American Society of Information Sciences 27:292-306.

Prigogine,ilya,1996,The End of Certainty: Time, Chaos, and the New Laws of Nature. newyork:thefreepress.

Quammen,david,2006,The Reluctant Mr. Darwin. newyork:w.w.nortonandcompany.

Quine,w.v.,1951,"twodogmasofempiricism."The Philosophical Review 60:20-43.

,1970,"NaturalKinds."InN.Rescher,ed.,Essays in Honor of Carl

G. Hempel Dordrecht:D.Reidel. Rabin,M.,1998,"PsychologyandEconomics."Journal of Economic